THE TEAM 990 SHOW HOST BLOGS

So much to discuss so I'll start with what happens when teams start the season with consecutive losses.

This is the part of the job I hate. It is that time of year when I have to throw a damper on the enthusiasm building up in certain cities.

You know the drill by now. Your favourite team is 0-2 and they are looking for something, anything really, that will turn their season around. A lucky bounce here, a goal line stand there, a special teams touchdown, you name it, they need it.

And what about you in the cheering section ? You’re looking at the schedule, picking out wins against some struggling teams, hoping for a few wins against top notch opponents who’ll be coming off a tough stretch and vainly praying that all these elements add up to 9 wins and a playoff spot.

Admit it! Be like me. I am a Chiefs fan. The Chiefs started 0-2 in 2000, 2001, 2004, 2006 and 2007. I can assure you that I pored over the schedule every year attempting to compute how in the hell they were going to get to 9-7. I wasn’t thinking higher than that. It was hard work, impossible actually, to get the formula just right, except in 2006 when it took the perfect trifecta to get us in: Denver, Cincinnati and Tennessee all losing on the final weekend while we beat the Jaguars in what was thought to be, at the time, a meaningless game.

Where was I ? Oh yeah ! 0-2 ! What does a 0-2 start mean for your team?

Facts: 78 teams have started a season 0-2 since 1999. Only 5 ended up in the playoffs. That’s it. Five out of seventy eight ! Six point four percent.

Who were the five? The Steelers and Falcons (2002) Eagles (2003) Chiefs (hooray 2006) and of course, your 2007 Super Bowl champions, the New York Giants.

I know what you are thinking right about now. Teams that start the season 0-2 are usually weak so they are supposed to lose. "I, on the other hand, am a fan of a team that made the playoffs last year. That makes us different".

Yes you are different. How different? Well, 24 teams, since 1999, started 0-2 after making the playoffs the year before. How many of those teams eventually made the playoffs? Just three. The Steelers (2002) Eagles (2003) and your 2007 Super Bowl champions, the New York Giants.

Three out of 24 equals twelve point five percent. In actual terms, that means the following:

Non playoff teams from previous year starting 0-2: 54 times, only 2 made playoffs. Odds 3.8%

Playoff teams from previous year starting 0-2: 24 times, only 3 made playoffs . Odds 12.5%

So if you are a fan of the Chiefs, Chargers, Seahawks, Dolphins, Vikings, Browns, Jaguars, Bengals, Lions and Rams,(all of whom are 0-2) prepare yourself for plenty of ups and downs (mostly downs), leading to a painful fall at the end, if the odds since 1999 remain stable.

But keep in mind however, that even if you were to put a wager on your team making the postseason, you’d still be betting against the market conditions and precedents. Unless you consider a 12.5 % chance of succeeding to be odds looking in your favor.  That's like buying stock in a company that plunged 60 percent in two weeks.  Sure they might recover but everyone else is jumping off the bandwagon.

Allow me to be a bit more specific as to how difficult it will be to turn things around. I’ll give you two teams, both legitimate Super Bowl contenders, that failed to recover from an 0-2 beginning.

Tennessee, 2001: Coming off a pair of 13-3 seasons, including a heartwrenching Super Bowl loss to the Rams, the Titans had high hopes. Instead, an 0-2 start (0-4 actually) turned into a 7-9 struggle.

Saint Louis, 2002: You know the story. Big favorites lose Super Bowl to the Patriots and are expected to get back on the mantle. Instead they start 0-2 (0-5 by slumps end) and finish 7-9.

If it can happen to them, it can happen to anyone.

The moral of the story is that when you only 16 opportunities to win 10 games, you cannot afford to start slow. This isn’t the NHL. In hockey if you lose a game in overtime you are given a half win. In football losing on a last second field goal provides you with absolutely nothing.

J.T. O’Sullivan: Is He The Real Deal?

The most important stat I use to measure a quarterback is yards per pass attempt: anything over the aggregate league average of 6.85 (this decade) is good, between 7.0 to 7.5 very good, 7.5 to 8.0 very very good, over 8.0 excellent and anything past 8.5 means you’re beyond All-Pro.

Why is yards per pass attempt the most important stat when measuring a quarterback’s efficiency? As I’ve mentioned before yards per pass attempt is telling because it is a wonderful indicator as to how quickly the quarterback can move a team down the field.

Picture this: down 4 points with two minutes to play, ball at your own 15 yard line with no timeouts, which means that you can’t run the ball. Your QB is averaging nine yards every time he throws the ball. So if you need 85 yards and you throw on every down, there is a reasonable (statistical) expectation that your team can reach the red zone withing eight plays.

It’s wrong to assume of course that your QB can automatically complete passes every time in pressure situations but the theory has been proven correct over a great many years.

What does this have to do with J.T. O’Sullivan? Well this career third stringer (six teams in six years) has put up the following numbers in his first two starts.

Vs Arizona 14 of 20 for 195 yards (9.75 yards per pass attempt)

vs Seattle 20 of 32 for 321 yards (10.03 yards per pass attempt)

Check out the efficiency and the consistency in the numbers: his average yards per pass attempt was close to 10 both times. As for how O’Sullivan performed in crunch time, check out his performance on the game tying drive against the Seahawks.

Despite getting sacked three times, O’Sullivan still completed two third down passes for a total of 43 yards (2 of 4 on the drive) as well as scrambling 16 yards for a first down on a broken 3^rd and 8 play.

And with 1:09 left, O’Sullivan got the 49ers in field goal range by completing both his passes for 26 yards, although Joe Nedney missed a game winning field goal attempt.

But no worries, J.T. took the ball in OT and led his team down the field, which is what quarterbacks are expected to do: 3 of 6 for 45 yards which included a pair of completions on 3^rd down to keep the drive alive.

All in all, J.T. O’Sullivan completed 7 of 12 passes for 114 yards in crunch time. Once again, his average yards per pass attempt was close to 10, which is, as I described earlier, beyond All Pro.

Here’s to hoping that the 49ers have finally found themselves a quarterback. The numbers sure indicate that they have.

Romeo Crennell : Atrocious, Atrocious Clock Management

Okay, I won’t mix any words here. I consider myself an expert on NFL clock management. I can accurately predict almost to the second how much time will remain under any possible scenario whether it be (a)three runs (2 passes and a run (c)two runs and a pass as well as (d)all combinations of timeouts, out of bounds plays and penalties.

The simple way to calculate is to understand that the average running play takes six seconds off the game clock before the forty second play clock is reset. This all assumes that the team that has the lead will take the play clock all the way down to one second before snapping the ball.

It is a bit more complicated than that but let’s just use the basic philosophies for now.

Okay, back to Romeo Crennell. You would think that if I know clock management then so should he. After all he is an NFL head coach. He has studied under Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick. He must know the basics of Clock Management 101.

Here’s the situation: the Browns trail the Steelers 10-6 with 3:21 left. The Steelers have the ball on their own 31 yard line. Needless to say, the Browns need the ball back and they have all three timeouts to use.

Allow me to take you through the Steelers drive that began with 3:21 left.

Play 1: Willie Parker stopped for no gain, creating a 2^nd and 10. Browns call timeout #1 with 3:16 left. So far so good.

Play 2: Ben completion to Heath Miller for 19 yards and a first down, in bounds, clock running. The play was whistled dead with 3:08 remaining. The Browns did not call their 2^nd timeout. Good call: save the timeout until after the next snap, which will be at the 2:29 mark. At that point, assuming it is second down, they could stop the clock with their second timeout, then stop the clock again (hoping it is third down) and then the two minute warning would stop the clock on what hopefully (for the Browns) is fourth down.

Got all that? Good. It isn’t that difficult for me to understand and one would assume that an NFL coach of good quality would have had all this figured out in his head as well.

Except....except....wait for it.....the Browns did use their second timeout.....with 2:57 remaining. They allowed 11 seconds to come off the clock!!!! What the hell was that all about ???? If they were going to use their timeout, why wait 11 seconds before doing so? Romeo must have known what he was going to do before the previous snap.

Anyways, this was not a fatal mistake. It really wasn’t. Why?

Because if the Browns could stop the Steelers on the next play (assuming it stays in bounds) they’d be able to call their final timeout on second down with 2:51 remaining (the average run lasts six seconds, remember).

Assuming that the Browns stop the Steelers in bounds on the next play and create a 3^rd down the play clock would be reset at 2:45. At that point if the Browns would stop the Steelers on third down, they’d force a punt BEFORE the two minute warning.

Anyways where were we? Oh yeah, the Browns stopped Willie Parker after a four yards gain, creating a 2^nd and six situation. Perfect time for Crennel to call his final timeout. Except that he didn’t.

Okay, I can live with the decision. The 40 second play clock was reset with 2:51 (as I had predicted) so the Crennell strategy was one whereby he would wrap his remaining timeout before the two minute warning. Not a terrible strategy although I certainly would not recommend taking all those precious seconds off the clock unless I was absolutely certain of getting a meaningful possession out of it.

So I dug my heels to see what Crennell had planned after the second down play.

Except...wait for it....the Browns did call their final timeout...with 2:42 remaining. What in God’s name is going on around here ????? NINE seconds ran off the clock before a decision was made!!!

Remember that a basic running play will take six seconds off the game clock, at which point the 40 second play clock would reset.

You can see where the mathematical problem comes into play.

Hypothetically, on 2^nd down with 2:42 to play the Steelers run the ball in bounds. The play clock is reset at approximately 2:37 and then forty seconds will come off. If the Browns have no timeouts, then the Steelers can take the game clock all the way down to the 2:00 warning without running a play.

And the Steelers would then be able to, since it would be third down, take the game clock all the way down to about 1:15 before punting, assuming of course that they don’t get a first down.

Atrocious! If a team doesn’t call a timeout quickly, then it should wait until after the next snap before doing so.

End result ? The Browns gave up a first down to the Steelers courtesy of a 19 yard Willie Parker run. On paper this made the Browns clock management fiasco a moot point except for one very important point: had the Browns called their final timeout AFTER the 19 yard run but BEFORE the 2:00 warning, they would have got the ball back with just over a minute to play, as opposed to the 25 seconds they were actually left with. A huge difference.

A professional head coach should be expected to understand the concepts and philosophies surrounding the usage of the game clock. If I can excel at it, so should they.

Never Count Peyton Manning Out: The Play That Saved A Season

When the Colts got the ball back with 4 minutes left in the 3^rd quarter I thought they were done for. Trailing 15-0 Peyton Manning had put up the following statline: 16 of 26 (okay) for 128 yards (awful) and an interception. As bad as those numbers were, Peyton’s performance was worse: he couldn’t escape the rush and he was throwing way too often in traffic.

I’ll admit it. The following thought crossed my mind and I’m sure many others felt the same way. ‘In a year when the powerful Patriots are suddenly vulnerable due to Tom Brady’s injury, here’s Peyton falling to 0-2 and facing a hungry Jags team next week. The season could be over before it begins’. (Go back and read the opening in my blog to see what happens when teams start 0-2)

On my notepad I had already installed the Colts at 0-2. I didn’t see any hope.

But then it happened. The play that may have turned a whole season around.

3^rd and 6 from their 24 yard line. Peyton rolls out of the pocket finds a streaking Anthony Gonzalez down the left sideline. After some shenanigans (a lateral) the ball ends up at the 1 yard line, where the Colts scored a few plays later.

4^th quarter: Peyton drives down the field again with 7 minutes to play, going 3 of 3 for 62 yards, including a TD to Reggie Wayne, with a two point convert added on to tie the game.

Finally with 60 seconds left, he got the ball back at midfield thanks to the Colts defense forcing a three and out from the shadow of the Vikings end zone. Result: a 20 yard completion to Reggie Wayne that brought out Adam Vinatieri to kick the game winning 46 yard field goal.

Let’s add up the numbers.

Minutes 1 to 41: Peyton 16 of 26 for 128 yards and an interception.

Final 19 minutes: Peyton 10 of 16 for 183 yards, a touchdown and an interception.

When the going got tough and when the season was on the line, Peyton got it done.

The Vikings Are Not Super Bowl Contenders

In my Friday blog I predicted a Vikings victory.  With the score 15-0 late in the 3rd I was feeling pretty confident.. Their defense was hounding Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson was being Adrian Peterson.

However, teams with Super Bowl designs cannot blow fifteen point second half leads at home. They simply cannot.

One stat that I take out this game is how Tarvaris Jackson performed after the Colts narrowed the deficit to 15-7: 3 of 7 for 25 yards and a fumble. 25 yards on 7 throws is, quite frankly, not good.

If the Vikings are to go anywhere, Tarvaris Jackson has to be able to get good yardage when there are eight men in the box to defend against Adrian Peterson. He simply must. In crunch time when the Vikings are trailing or tied late, running the ball with Peterson won’t be an option because the clock would be working against them.

That is why yards per pass attempt is so important. When you cannot run the ball because you’re up against the clock, you have to be able to get good yardage through the air.

Romeo Crennel, Part Two

Okay, Romeo’s clock management was atrocious. Fine. But I was also disturbed by what happened on the Browns previous drive because it led directly to the need for the decision making that I have already described above in excruciating detail.

Here is the situation: Browns trail 10-3 and driving. They have a first down with 4:51 remaining at the Steeler 23 yard line. Needless to say, they need a touchdown before the game ends.

Anyway here is the sequence of plays that followed. Jamal Lewis runs for no gain, forty seconds come off the game clock, Jamal Lewis runs for 3 yards, thirty five seconds come off the game clock and finally Derek Anderson threw an incomplete pass, which brought fourth down and seven from the 20 with 3: 28 to play.

Decision time: kick a field goal to cut the lead to 10-6 or go for the first down to keep the drive alive.

An argument could be made both ways. A field goal means you can win the game with a touchdown (as long as you get at least 90 seconds with which to drive down the field) Going for it means perhaps getting a touchdown later in the drive, negating the need for another drive (until overtime, hopefully)

But I thought that the Browns should have gone for it and I’ll tell you why. On first and second down they ran the ball and didn’t even hurry to the line of scrimmage. If a field goal attempt was forthcoming then the least Derek Anderson and the offense could have done was to snap the ball quicker, thereby saving as much of the clock as possible. This way their defence would have had more room for error in getting the ball back.

The Browns strategy confused me. If you run the ball twice then the expectation would be that you are doing so in order to make the third down play (and fourth down, if necessary) more manageable. This would also mean that you are preparing to gamble, and consequently, take as much time off the clock as possible to prevent the Steelers from getting a meaningful possession (assuming the Browns score a TD to tie at 10)

Why did I assume this? Because the Browns offense was not in a hurry up mode. Why would they take all that time off the clock if the intent was to kick a field goal on a potential fourth down?

That’s why they should have gambled. They wasted all that clock so why not go for it. A field goal means that they still a need a touchdown to win. Gambling and failing means that the Browns would still need a touchdown to tie.

Either way, a field goal down 7 with 3:28 to play only gives you the margin of victory if you (a)get the ball back with plenty of time remaining and (b)you actually get a touchdown. Neither (a) or (b) are guaranteed to happen.

So if kicking a field goal offered no guarantee what was the alternative? Going for it.

Look, I know that kicking a field goal is the safe thing to do. If you kick the field goal and still lose, you can tell the media and the owner that you did what every other coach would have done.

How could you be criticized if you make the safe call?

Well, all I know is the Browns played it safe and lost. Now they are 0-2, heading into road games against the Ravens and Bengals before their bye week. Here’s hoping they get to 2-2 because if they don’t, it could be a long season along Lake Erie.

Decision Time in Miami

Face facts: Chad Pennington is not going to make a huge difference in the Dolphins won loss record this year. If Pennington plays very well, perhaps the Dolphins can reach 5 or 6 wins, which a difficult enough proposition considering they are already 0-2.

But it wouldn’t be so bad considering that the Dolphins are coming off a 1-15 finish. However, if the ‘Fins expect to be Super Bowl contenders within the next three seasons, they will have to ask themselves a basic question regarding the quarterback position.

Do we go with a veteran like Pennington who won’t embarrass us (at best 5-11, maybe 6-10) or do we force the rookie Chad Henne in there and risk going 2-14 or god forbid, 1-15 again?

That truly is where the Dolphins stand at this very moment. They are two games back in the division standings and things don’t look to improve anytime soon.

What will happen? The rookie will start on Sunday. Henne played one drive in garbage time and he put up decent numbers in reaching the end zone: 7 of 12 for 67 yards. While it is tough to tell whether Henne can handle NFL defenses based on how he played against a Cardinals prevent scheme, there is not time like the present.

Tony Sparano has a five year contract. He has to walk up to major domos Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland and bluntly explain that going with Chad Henne might mean going 1-15 again, but will lead to positive results quicker. Hopefully the Big Tuna and his disciple will understand and give Sparano the time he needs to turn Miami around. Going with a young QB in a total rebuilding situation requires being patient with the head coach.

The List Of Big Time Decisions : Put Mike Shanahan On It

When the NFL introduced the two point convert before the 1994 season, everyone, and I do mean everyone, asked the same question: if a team was down seven very late in the game and they scored a touchdown, would a coach ever try for two to win right then and there?

Fair question. In the NCAA they seem to do it all the time.

I distinctly remember what then 49ers coach George Siefert said at the time: absolutely not. No coach would ever risk losing the game in regulation by going for two when the possibility of getting ball in overtime existed. It just didn’t make any sense. Kicking the extra point was the only proper decision because it would allow your team to win later, as opposed to never getting another chance (if you failed)

And you know what? Siefert was right. The amount of time a coach has risked everything for 2 points can be counted on one hand.

Here is the list

Jacksonville vs Tampa Bay 1995: the expansion Jags, down 7, score a touchdown with under a minute left. Tom Coughlin goes for 2 and FAILS.

Minnesota vs New Orleans 2002: the Vikes, down 7 and playing the playoff bound Saints, score with 10 seconds remaining. Mike Tice goes for 2 and watches Daunte Culpepper SCORE on a QB draw up the middle. Vikes win. As for the playoff bound Saints, who were 9-4 entering the game, they never recovered. In their final two games, they lost to the Bengals and the Panthers, missing the playoffs entirely.

Tampa Bay vs Washington 2005: The Bucs, down 7 with 48 seconds remaining, score a TD. Jon Gruden goes for two and gets it when Mike Alstott crosses the goal line. Actually, Alstott did not cross the goal line but it’s too late to argue about it now. The Redskins got a measure of revenge during the playoffs when they eliminated the Bucs in the wild card round.

And now Mike Shanahan joins the list.

The ultimate irony is that the Broncos should never have been in a position to go for two to begin with. Jay Cutler fumbled the football two plays earlier from the 17 yard line: it was an empty hand with the hand going forward, which is a fumble. Game over. Chargers win.

Except that referee Ed Hochuli blew the whistle too quickly, indicating an incomplete pass, rendering the Chargers recovery of the loose football moot.

I’d like to blame Ed Hochuli for blowing the whistle too fast except for one tiny detail: I too officiate sports, namely hockey, as well as some basketball and softball (but not much of those lately)

The most similar play in hockey is the goalmouth scramble: refs blow the whistle if they feel the goalie has it or if they lose sight of the puck.

Unfortunately the worst case scenario does happen: The whistle blows stopping the play when the puck in actuality is free. Goal is scored, offense celebrates until they find out they play is dead.

Back to the Broncos-Chargers. That’s two weeks in a row that Philip Rivers brought his team from behind in the fourth quarter, only to watch his defence lose the game by giving up a late touchdown.  Agains the Panthers it was at the gun, and to the Broncos with 24 seconds left.

That’s what makes the Chargers 0-2 start that much more infuriating: it’s easier to recover from a weak start when you know you’re playing badly. You simply work harder and prepare better for the next game.

Decision Time in Detroit

Miami is not the only team with a quarterback quandry. The Lions are also 0-2 after blowing a fourth quarter lead against the Packers. They were leading 25-24 with 7 minutes remaining after coming back from an early 21-0 deficit.

The Packers however scored a quick TD to retake the lead: Jon Kitna has three drives to put the Lions over the top. Kitna’s numbers: 2 of 6 for 16 yards and three interceptions, two of which were returned for touchdowns.

Face facts: the Lions are not going anywhere with Kitna. Unlike Pennington however, Kitna is going to put up wonderful fantasy numbers, having thrown for a pair of touchdowns in both games to with his 536 yards. Taken over 16 games Kitna would finish with over 4300 yards and 32 touchdowns. Cannot argue with the totals but the fact remains that with Kitna under center the Lions are 1-9 in their last 10 games.

Backup quarterback Dan Orlovsky played in garbage time against the Pack and put up mediocre stats: 2 of 4 for 6 yards. Michigan graduate Drew Stanton is also waiting in the wings.

My recommendation: stick with Kitna for one, maybe two more weeks. The Lions, unlike the ‘Fins are not in total rebuilding mode. Kitna could theoretically get the Lions closer to .500 than Pennington can with Miami.

If the Lions fall to 0-4 however, the plug should be pulled.

What will happen? Kitna will keep his job. Why? Because unlike Tony Sparano, Lions coach Rod Marinelli is in his third year, with records of 3-13 and 7-9 to his credit. If Marinelli goes with Stanton or Orlovsky, he all but guarantees another sub .500 record which will get him the pink slip come early January.

That's it for me.   I'll be back on Friday with my mailbag and my predictions.  jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com with your thoughts and questions.