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Welcome back to Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G

Predictions time for Week 2 ....in the NFL.  Last week I was 10-6 (62.5%) which fell in line with my average from 2007.  As a comparison point, both Simon Tsalikis and George Caperis from The Ministry of Sports (which airs immediately after the Monday Night game) went 9-7.  Listen this Monday for Simon and George to talk football, football and yes....even more football.  And don't forget to listen to the play by play courtesy of the legend Marv Albert and his broadcast partner Boomer Esiason, only on the Team 990.

On to the prognosticating.

Bills over Jaguars
Vikings over Colts

Picture this.  The Colts, 13-3 last year, and the Jags, who were 11-5, start the season with two losses each.  And they will.

Wow! That means that when the Colts and Jags face off next week it will be, in essence, an elimination game.  Why?  Read my blog on Tuesday when I recap the week that was in the NFL.  I'll be explaining, in great detail, how difficult it is for teams to make the playoffs when they start 0-2.  Depending on which team you like, you might want to avoid Tuesday's post.

This is Dick Jauron's eighth season as an NFL head coach.  He' only been 2-0 once before, in 2002.  He'll be 2-0 again after his Bills beat the injury depleted Jags.  But Jauron should hope that he gets a better finish than 2002: his Bears lost 12 of 14 after their fast start.

Keep one thing in mind regarding the Bills: they have the Raiders and Lions coming up.  A win over the Jags and the Bills could be looking at a 4-0 start.  Not to look too far ahead, but they must be licking their chops right about now.

The Jags philosophy against the Titans last week confused me.  Yes their offensive line was in shambles due to injuries and the Richard Collier shooting incident, but still, a pass run ratio of 35 to 17 was nonsensical.  Neither team ever led my more than seven points so the game was always close.  So why did the Jags abandon the run?  Yes they only averaged less than 2 yards a carry (33 yards on those 17 carries) which is putrid, but by taking Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones Drew out of the equation it allowed the Titans front four to tee off on David Garrard to the tune of seven sacks. 

As for the Vikings, isn't it about time they prove that they are real Super Bowl contenders?  A real contender wins a big game and the Vikings have not done so.  Last season they had a playoff spot in their hands: all they had to do was beat the Skins in week 16.  They didn't.  Then they had a chance to put pressure on the Skins in week 17: all they had to do was beat the Broncos, who had nothing to play for.  They didn't.

And on Monday night the Vikes had a chance to make a statement against a quarterback making his first career start.  Aaron Rodgers was 18 of 22 for 179 yards with a touchdown pass and a touchdown run.  No statement made.

Needless to say, three straight losses does not equal a serious contender.

A win over the Colts however, will change the equation considerably.  They'll win.

Cowboys over the Eagles

Who cares about the actual football game?  I am predicting that the ESPN cameras will show Jessica Simpson at least forty times during the broadcast.  Probably more.  Don't forget that the Cowboys went downhill once Jessica showed up to the Cowboys-Eagles game last December.  Without Jessica 12-1  With Jessica 2-3

Falcons over Bucs

It must suck to be Jeff Garcia.  He didn't start the final two games of '07, which took him out of the running for performance bonuses.  Garcia could have played, but followed coach Gruden's instructions to rest for the playoffs instead.

Then the Bucs refused to renegotiate the second year of his two year contract.  Bucs management had the right to refuse of course, but they compounded the injury to Garcia's psyche (don't forget that Garcia was selected to the ProBowl) by openly negotiating with the Packers for the rights to a certain other quarterback.

And now this.  Garcia will be held out of the Atlanta contest because coach Jon Gruden wants to go with Brian Griese, who he considers to be a healthier quarterback.  Apparently Garcia has an ankle sprain.

Garcia is upset for a few reasons

(a)He doesn't feel there is anything so wrong with his ankle that he has to sit out
(b)He is in the last year of his deal with the Bucs: if he doesn't play, it'll hurt him in the free agent market come next February
(c)If he doesn't play, he also won't meet the performance numbers that will give him bonus money
(c)He feels that he is being punished for opening his mouth on a regular basis

Add it all up: Garcia's not happy and reports from the Bay area suggest that he'll be traded by the deadline.

Falcons win this game.  Here's an interesting question.  Who would have predicted that former Jags defensive coordinator and current Falcons coach Mike Smith would be 2-0 while his former team is 0-2? 

Saints over Skins

Three defensive starters ( cornerback Randall Gay, middle linebacker Scott Fujita and strong safety Roman Harper) will be out of the lineup for the Saints.  In theory this should help Jason Campbell as he gets accostomed to the West Coast offense.  Quarterbacks in the West Coast scheme look at the middle backer before the snap to determine which side to look at first, then the strong safety once they take their first step backwards.

Assuming that the replacements for Harper and Fujita will be inferior, Campbell should, in theory at least, improve on his week 1 performance against the Giants.  It wasn't just that Jason's numbers were bad (they were: 15 of 27 for 133 yards) it was the way he moved in the pocket, his use of the play clock and his decision making in who to throw to.  Three times on 3rd down in the 3rd quarter he completed a pass to a reciever who was nowhere close to the first down marker.  Once is acceptable, twice can be excused depending on the defense, but three times?  For more info on how bad Campbell and the Redskins offense played against the Giants, I will refer you to my blog posting from last week.  Here is the link:

http://www.team990.com/blog/view/article/jim_zorn_a_horrible_coaching_debut/

Having said all that, I do not expect Campbell to improve anytime soon.  The West Coast offense is not a scheme that can be picked up over one training camp.  It takes time to develop the rapport with receivers. 

Saints win, Saints win.

Titans over Bengals

Here's hoping that Vince Young turns things around.  Vince isn't happy because he's getting booed: I can understand the frustration.  However, a professional athlete, especially one who plays such a high impact position, also has to realize that
dealing with external issues such as fan disapproval comes with the territory.

If you had no problems putting your name on a lucrative contract that provided you with 22 million dollars up front, then you should be able to handle even the most major external demands.

The one surprise in the Bengals performance last week against the Ravens wasn't their lack of tackling ability.  They were terrible defensively last year and did little to change their outlook in free agency.

No, the surprise was in how poorly Carson Palmer played.  You could always count on Carson Palmer to put on a good show on Opening Day.  Look at his previous four opening days before the Ravens contest.

vs Jets 2004: 18 of 27 for 248 yards 2 TDs  rating 105.2
vs Browns 2005: 26 of 34 for 280 yards 2 TDs rating 107.5
vs Chiefs 2006: 13 of 19 for 127 yards    rating 87.0
vs Ravens 2007: 20 of 32 for 194 yards 2 TDs rating 100.2

Add it up. Three wins and four very good performances.  But all good things must come to an end.  Versus the Ravens in week 1: 9 of 24 for 91 yards and an interception.  Rating of 32.3.

Keep in mind that a quarterback can fail to complete a pass all season long and still finish with a quarterback rating of 39.3, as long as he doesn't throw a pick.  Meaning that Carson Palmer's rating against Baltimore was below even the worst possible standard.

Raiders over Chiefs

I hope I am wrong on this one.  I get the distinct impression that the loss to the Patriots will be the only true bright spot this season.  A loss?   I also get the feeling that Jamarcus Russell is going to break loose in a big way very soon and very soon in my opinion is Arrowhead on Sunday.

Bears over Panthers

A few weeks ago I wrote about how Kyle Orton was the worst quarterback in 2005 yet the Bears still went 11-5 due to their great defense.  Here's the link:
http://www.team990.com/blog/view/article/kyle_orton_and_da_bears_what_can_we_expect_in_2008/

I went on to predict that Kyle Orton would be just as bad in 2008: I made no bones about it.

Well, how much do I know.  The defense played great as most would have predicted.

And Orton? He exceeded my (and most people's) expectations: 13 of 21 for 150 yards. 

In future I'll wait a bit longer so I can truly give Bears coach Lovie Smith the benefit of the doubt when he makes an important decision.

Cardinals over Dolphins

The Cardinals have not started a season 2-0 since 1991.  This may sound overly dramatic but if the Cardinals harbor any hopes of getting to the Super Bowl this year they simply must win this game.  At home against a team that went 1-15 last year?  This should be an easy win.  If the Cards lose to the Dolphins, how can they expect to beat the good teams?


Other predictions
Giants over Rams
Ravens over Texans (if the game takes place)
Steelers over Browns
Seahawks over 49ers
Packers over Lions
Patriots over Jets

Two weeks ago I had the privelege of posting my thoughts two weeks ago regarding how many wins each team will have : here's the link for those who missed it.

http://www.team990.com/blog/view/article/absolute_jimmy_g_2008_nfl_predictions_time_sports/

In the next few weeks I'll be informing readers as to what others think will happen.  Today I'll post the team by team prognostications of the venerable Sean Campbell, host of all Alouettes programming as well as 'The Play It Again Sports Radio Show' and 'The Double Nine O Trivia Show' 

Without further ado, here is what Sean thinks will happen.

AFC
East
Patriots 13-3
Jets 9-7
Bills 8-8
Dolphins 5-11

North
Steelers 12-4
Browns 9-7
Ravens 4-12
Bengals 3-13

South
Jaguars 11-5
Colts 10-6
Titans 7-9
Texans 7-9

West
Chargers 14-2
Broncos 8-8
Raiders 7-9
Chiefs 1-14-1


NFC
East
Dallas 12-4
Eagles 11-5
Giants 9-7
Redskins 5-1

North
Vikings 10-6
Packers 8-8
Bears 6-10
Lions 6-10

South
Saints 11-5
Bucs 9-7
Panthers 8-8
Falcons 1-14-1

West
Seahawks 10-6
Cardinals 9-7
49ers 8-8
Rams 4-12

That's it for me.  Want to send me an email?  Simple.  jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com

I'll be back on Tuesday with my analysis of Week 2.  Enjoy the games!