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Welcome back to your top source for football opinion, ‘Touchdowns and Kicks with Jimmy G’

Next week I’ll open yet another mailbag, a rather large one at that. If you want to have your email answered, send me your thoughts at jimmy.garoufalis@team990.com. Your question will be answered in the mailbag or by personal response, perhaps even both. Space restrictions, ‘ya know.

Let’s not waste any time getting to business.

This is Week 8 and there are FIVE teams that MUST win in order to have ANY playoff aspirations.

A loss and they still might recover, mind you, but I certainly wouldn’t bet on it.

Why? The AFC is a mess right now as regards the Wild Card Picture but this weekend will clear that up.

If the season were to end today, the 4-2 New England Patriots would be the top wild card in the AFC, and FOUR teams are tied for the LAST wild card spot: the Ravens, the Jets, the Colts and the Jaguars.

If that isn’t muddled enough, don’t forget the Chargers at 3-4 as well as the Texans, Raiders, Browns and Dolphins, all of whom are 2-4.

Got all that? There are NINE teams right now that are within ONE game of a playoff spot (be it division title or wild card)

Is this parity or mediocrity? Who cares? As long as every game involves teams that have something to play for, I will not be complaining.

I’ll get to my official predictions at the end of this posting.

FEARLESS PREDICTION: If any of the teams listed below lose this Sunday, stick a fork in them, they’re done.

(1)The 2-4 RAIDERS: Oakland simply has to beat the Ravens. If they don’t they’ll find themselves two games back of Baltimore for the last wild card spot (without the head to head tiebreaker) as well as possibly 1.5 games back of the Chargers for second place in the AFC West (again, without the head to head tiebreaker)

(2)The 2-4 DOLPHINS: similar to Oakland, Miami is in a desperate position going into their game against the 5-1 Bills. If they win, they’ll only be 2 games back of the Bills (albeit in last place) If they lose, they’ll be (a)four games back of the Bills without ANY tiebreakers and (b)two games back of either(perhaps all) of these teams for the last wild card spot: the Ravens(who beat Miami), the Jets(who also beat Miami, and the Jags and Colts.

Miami simply cannot afford a loss versus Buffalo.

(3)The 2-4 TEXANS: at 0-4 the Texans were done. Not only were they in last place(where else would a winless team be?), they were also demoralized, having blown 4^th quarter leads to divisional rivals Jacksonville and the Colts. However, a final second touchdown by Matt Schaub to beat the Dolphins and a win over the hapless Lions has lifted Houston to the depths where a playoff spot can be imagined.

How? By beating the Bengals. A win over winless Cincinnati would elevate the Texans to 3-4, guaranteeing them a worst case scenario of being only one game back of the wild card.

A loss by the Texans would drop them to 2-5, and if you include the heartwrenching defeats at the hands of the Colts and Jaguars (and the tiebreaker disadvantage it wrought) Garry Kubiak’s boys will be done for the year.

(4)The 2-4 BROWNS: The Browns are very similar to the Texans, who started 0-4 before winning two straight. The Browns were 0-3 before beating the winless Bengals (winless Bengals is a phrase we’ll be repeating often in the next few weeks, if not until the end of the season) and adding a pasting of the defending champion Giants on a Monday night.

And now the Browns, who barely missed the playoffs at 10-6 last year, are in an absolute must win situation against the Jaguars. They simple cannot lose this game and still have hope of reaching the postseason.

Let’s face the music: the Browns have already lost divisional games to both Baltimore and Pittsburgh. A loss to Jacksonville will mean that the Browns would be 3 (or 4) games back of Pittsburgh in the division race (not including the tiebreak, which Cleveland does not have), as well as between 2 or 3 games back of Baltimore for second place in the division (again not inlcuding the tiebrea, which Cleveland does not have)

Not only that, but a loss to Jacksonville, who are one of the four teams at 3-3 (and holding a playoff spot) would put Cleveland two games back of the Jags (without the head to head tiebreak)

(5)The 1-5 SEAHAWKS: when Mike Holmgren announced that this would be his final season, I am sure he envisioned yet another playoff appearance to add to his already hefty and impressive resume. Yeah, well, that still might happen but I wouldn’t bet on it unless Matt Hasselback comes back quick.

The Seahawks have 3 major problems when it comes to playoff aspirations.

(1)they’re in last place in the division, trailing the Cardinals by a whopping 3 games

(2)they are also 3,5 games out of a wild card spot, currently held by the 5-2 Redskins and 5-2 Panthers

(3)they’ve already lost to San Francisco

Who do the Seahawks play this Sunday? You guessed it, San Francisco.

A loss to the Bay boys would drop the Seahawks two back of the 49ers (and guaranteed to lose the tiebreak because of the series sweep)

Coupled with how far back they are in the wild card spot, a 1-6 Seahawks team (assuming they lose to the 49ers) would have to practically ‘win out’ (go undefeated), as in nine straight wins to finish the season.

Can the Seahawks ‘win out’? Uhhh, check out who Seattle plays in weeks 13,14 and 15: home to Washington, at Dallas and home to the Patriots. I cannot envision Seattle winning two of three, let alone all three of those matchups. And don’t forget the Seahawks would need to win the other seven games that wrap around this trio in order to get to ten wins.

There you have it. FIVE TEAMS that simply must win in order to still have a chance at the playoffs. If ANY of these teams (Browns, Dolphins, Texans, Seahawks and Raiders) lose, they are done. That is MY FEARLESS PREDICTION that I offer to all my loyal team990.com readers, as well as to new readers joining in for the first time.

Right now, that you’ve been waiting for: Jimmy G’s predictions for Week 8 in the NFL.

Bills over Miami: yes, the Dolphins will lose and they’ll be ‘fin ished. (Get it? ‘Fin ished) The Bills play both the Patriots and Jets after this game. A division sweep spaced out over these three weeks would all but assure the Bills of a playoff spot, if not the division title. It all starts here.

Buccaneers over Cowboys: Brad Johnson used to play for Jon Gruden way back in the day. They have a Super Bowl ring to show for it. Alas, Jon Gruden should know how to exploit BJ’s weaknesses, of which he had many during the Tampa years and at 40, he has even more now. Watch for Lane Kiffin to install an attacking defense which forces Johnson to move out of the pocket (which he cannot do) and make the long throws (which he cannot do) since his recievers in close will be sandwiched in the Cover 2. This will not be pretty to watch.

Jets over Chiefs: the Chiefs should just mail in the season, settle for the top pick in the draft and then either rebuild with the #1 choice or trade it for several picks so that they can have quality depth. I would imagine that any decision regarding the draft will be made by a new President/GM and new head coach, since both GM Carl Peterson and coach Herman Edwards will be gone moments after the conclusion of the season.

Texans over Bengals: the Marvin Lewis countdown (to getting fired) began during the pre-season, and with each loss, the noose gets tighter. At 0-7, there is no reason for Carson Palmer to rush back into the lineup, and ultimately, the inability to win even a few games will cost a good man his coaching job. The shame is that if Marvin Lewis had been fired after the 2007 season (when Cincy went 7-9) he would have been at the top of the list for any job that became available. Now? Not so much. It’s true what they say: life is a matter of timing.

49ers over Seahawks: the 49ers will be ready to play for new head coach Mike Singletary. The Seahawks cannot throw the ball at all, whether it be Charlie Frye or Seneca Wallace taking the snaps. The trend will continue for Seattle this week, and for as long as it takes to get Matt Hasselback back in the saddle.

Jaguars over Browns: the Jags are back baby! At 0-2 they were in trouble of being put out to pasture, but a pair of David Garrard’s 4^th quarter clutch performances against the Colts and Texans turned the season around. Check out who the 3-3 Jags play after this tilt against Cleveland: the winless Bengals and the winless Lions. Hopefully for the Jags they don’t look too far into the future and focus solely on this very important game.

Patriots over Rams: I hesitated to put this game down as a MUST win for the Rams, even though they are 2-4 and potentially could fall into a tie for last place in the NFC West with a loss. Why? Because the NFC West is a weak division and I don’t consider the 4-2 Cardinals as locks to continue their pace.

Chargers over Saints: for all of Drew Brees’ awesome stats, the 3-4 Saints are in last place and trailing both the division leader and wild card spot by 2 games. A loss here, even in a non-conference game would keep the Saints in last place AND potentially have them three games back of third place Atlanta as well as whoever holds the final wild.card spot.

For all the talk about the Saints having a better start to this campaign as opposed to ‘07, keep one thing in mind. The Saints started ‘07 3-5 on their way to 7-9. The Saints record so far in ‘08: 3-4.

The Saints will be 3-5 after Sunday’s game in England.  So much for the new and improved Saints.

Ravens over Raiders: despite Jamarcus Russell’s first ever comeback drive, I don’t see how the Raiders repeat their performance against the Ravens. It’ll be close, and good god the Raiders need this game badly, but the Ravens Defense will get the job done.

Panthers over Cardinals: with every win, Bill Cowher's chances of being the Carolina coach in 2009 decrease. 

Eagles over Falcons: the Eagles need this game badly but not enough to qualify it as a MUST WIN.  Why? As long as Dallas struggles under Brad Johnson, the Eagles can remain in contention for 3rd place in the NFC East.  Not a great place to be, mind you, but managable for the next two weeks at least.

Redskins over Lions: if the Redskins are to make the playoffs they have to win games like this. They’ve already lost to the then 0-4 Rams, they cannot let the same thing happen twice.

Giants over Steelers

That’s it for me. Thank you for reading ‘Touchdowns And Kicks With Jimmy G’. Enjoy the games on Sunday and do not forget to keep sending those emails. As all those who have sent emails in the past can attest, I always respond.